According to the survey of the population bases of H. armigera isolates and the weather forecast, combined with the ecological conditions, it is predicted that the third-generation H. armigera is generally moderate. The degree of occurrence varies greatly from place to place. Xingtai, Handan, and Hengshui are moderately heavy. It is estimated that an area of ​​950 million mu will occur in the cotton fields and 25 million mu in other crop fields. The second generation of adult crops is expected to peak on July 23-26. For the period from July 20 to August 1, the peak period is late. Based on:
1. The total number of residues is generally low. The differences are obvious everywhere, and the number of remnants in some cities and counties is high. The average number of second-generation remnants of cotton in the province was 1.2,471, which was lower than the 1.3831 heads per 100 in 2007 and the number of other crops in the field was 4.1842, which was also lower than the 5.9257 heads per 100 in 2007. The total insect population was 52.03% lower than the average over the years. However, there are significant differences between regions. One hundred and forty-five strains of Hengshui cotton field were in high quantity. The average number of 100 second-generation remnants in the cotton fields of Handan City was 1.65, which was slightly lower than that of the previous year.
2. Meteorological conditions are not conducive to the occurrence of cotton bollworm. According to the prediction of the provincial climate center, in July, the precipitation in the central and southern parts of our province was one to two percent higher than usual, and the temperature was about 0.5 degrees higher than normal. July's climate was not conducive to the emergence of bollworms. Rainwater is more conducive to crop growth, and other crops such as corn, peanuts and vegetables will also be major hazards. The climatic conditions with more rain will be conducive to the occurrence of blind and obscure elephants. Since the beginning of this year, the cotton farmers have increased their scientific treatment of blind and obscure elephants, and their frequent use of drugs will effectively treat three generations of cotton bollworms.
3. The age of the worm is significantly lower than the average year. Due to the low temperature in June, the development rate of Helicoverpa armigera was reduced compared with the high temperature years. Therefore, there was a rare occurrence of large proportion of first-instar pests in the survey of residues. For example, the number of first-instar remnants in Xinji City accounted for nearly 50%, compared with 0 in the same period of 2007. The proportion of the remaining instars in the province was 16.61% for the first instar, 27.72% for the 2nd instar, 26.49% for the 3rd instar, 17.98% for the 4th instar, 10.12% for the 5th instar, 1.08% for the 6th instar, and 4 to 6 instar ratio. The year-on-year low of 6.04% will cause a delay in the period.
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